The Russian economy has died and is spiralling towards a default on its foreign debt payments.
Putin has invented the time machine. It is a direct train to the most terrifying times of the late 1980s and the early 1990s. But there is a difference. In those times, Russia was moving to the future, now the insane dictator drags it into the past.
Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Bank of Russia, wrote a resignation letter and stated the facts that we welcomed delightfully. The Russian financial system became unmanageable. The default that will bring everything down may happen at any moment. Nobody warned her about the war in Ukraine, and she wasn’t ready for the explosion of the Western sanctions. Actually, severe sanctions and a ban on Russian energy imports are transforming Russia into North Korea. It’s a long story of companies that left Russia. Millions of people lost their jobs as a result of it. The stoppage of technology exports and trade and its consequences. Total isolation and treating Russians as lepers. It gradually kills the economy of any country. Venezuela, North Korea, Iran and Cuba are good examples of this. Russia became the most sanctioned country in the world. It left behind even Iran. Furthermore, the USA is negotiating with Iran and Venezuela for partial removal of sanctions and an increase of oil and gas supply to hit Russia.
And don’t compare Russia to the USSR. The Soviet Union had 20% of the world economy. Russia has 2%. It’s like comparing a big hill near Moscow to Everest. The USSR had plenty of allies and the 2nd army in the world. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have shown the true condition of the Russian military. In fact, Russian casualties in the first two weeks of aggression against Ukraine are tantamount to the USSR casualties in ten years of the Soviet-Afghan war. Russia doesn’t have the resources and the margin of safety that the USSR had. The dissatisfaction of Russian oligarchs and Putin’s inner circle in addition to the total impoverishment of the population are the prerequisites for a coup and bloody rebellions. Putin’s dictatorship may look like an undefeatable stone giant. However, it has clay legs. Ukraine tears the first leg, and the Western sanctions tear the second one. We will see whether he will try to stand in his arms.
There will be intense battles. But we have already won. I wrote about it in my previous post. So, Russia admitting defeat is only a matter of time.
After the war, there will be an economic boom in Ukraine. Multi-billion dollar investment, reforms under Western control and open markets will radically change our country. There will be new residential areas, infrastructure, and businesses. Besides, we will have strong institutions and a balance of powers that are even more important. We will be the new South Korea or Poland. On the border with barbarism. Behind the barbed wire. Far from the living dead.
Ukrainian Text by Pavlo Boyko, translated into English by Ukrainianvancouver team – Mar 19, 2022